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Αρχική / Αρθρογραφία / “Το Plan B της κυβέρνησης για την ελάφρυνση του χρέους”, του Ηλία Παπαδόπουλου, οικονομολόγου, μέλους της Δ.Ε. του Κινήματος Δεν Πληρώνω-Ενιαίο Μέτωπο

“Το Plan B της κυβέρνησης για την ελάφρυνση του χρέους”, του Ηλία Παπαδόπουλου, οικονομολόγου, μέλους της Δ.Ε. του Κινήματος Δεν Πληρώνω-Ενιαίο Μέτωπο

Το Plan της κυβέρνησης για την ελάφρυνση του χρέους

1531643_10152523006843368_531956529_nτου Ηλία Παπαδόπουλου, οικονομολόγου, μέλους της Δ.Ε. του Κινήματος Δεν Πληρώνω-Ενιαίο Μέτωπο

Λίγες μέρες έχουν περάσει από την ορκωμοσία της πρώτης κυβέρνησης με κορμό την αριστερά στην σύγχρονη ιστορία της χώρας μας. Η νέα κυβέρνηση, μέσα στο πρώτο δεκαήμερο του βίου της, έχει καταφέρει να τοποθετήσει το ελληνικό πρόβλημα στο επίκεντρο του παγκόσμιου ενδιαφέροντος. Μάλιστα, είναι πολύ πιθανό η εξέλιξη του ελληνικού θέματος να πυροδοτήσει αλλαγές του τρόπου αντιμετώπισης της οικονομικής κρίσης σε πανευρωπαϊκό, αλλά και παγκόσμιο επίπεδο. Το εάν οι αλλαγές αυτές θα είναι ριζικές ή απλά παραλλαγές των υφιστάμενων αντιλαϊκών πολιτικών είναι ένα ζήτημα το οποίο εξαρτάται εν πολλοίς και από τους ίδιους τους λαούς και το κατά πόσο θα διεκδικήσουν ρόλο πρωταγωνιστή ή θα αρκεστούν στο ρόλο του κομπάρσου.

Η στρατηγική διαπραγμάτευσης της νέας κυβέρνησης με τους διεθνείς πιστωτές, όπως διαφαίνεται, έχει αναληφθεί κατ’ αποκλειστικότητα από τον πρωθυπουργό Αλέξη Τσίπρα και τους στενούς του συνεργάτες στο οικονομικό επιτελείο (Δραγασάκη, Βαρουφάκη, Σταθάκη, Τσακαλώτο). Καθίσταται επίσης σαφές ότι σημαντικό ρόλο αναμένεται να παίξει και ο αμφιλεγόμενος επενδυτικός όμιλος Lazard, ο οποίος θα διατελέσει χρέη συμβούλου στα θέματα του δημοσίου χρέους και της διαχείρισης των δημοσιονομικών.

Η νέα εθνική στρατηγική εξόδου από την κρίση, όπως διαμορφώνεται μετεκλογικά, περιλαμβάνει βασικά τα εξής σημεία: την ελάφρυνση του χρέους, την σταδιακή απεμπλοκή από τη λιτότητα με ισοσκελισμένους και ελαφρώς πλεονασματικούς πρωτογενώς προϋπολογισμούς, την πάταξη των διαρθρωτικών παθογενειών της ελληνικής οικονομίας (διαφθορά, διαπλοκή, φοροδιαφυγή κ.α.) και την παραγωγική ανασυγκρότηση της ελληνικής οικονομίας. Η επιτυχία των διαπραγματεύσεων στο επίπεδο της ελάφρυνσης του χρέους αναμένεται να παίξει καθοριστικό ρόλο στη διαμόρφωση των χαρακτηριστικών της νέας εποχής και αναμένεται να καθορίσει τον δημοσιονομικό χώρο που θα έχει στη διάθεσή της η νέα κυβέρνηση προκειμένου να εφαρμόσει το πρόγραμμά της.

Οι πρώτες ενδείξεις δείχνουν ότι η κυβέρνηση αντικαθιστά το Plan A του απευθείας κουρέματος του χρέους, καθώς δεν βρήκε ευήκοα ώτα και υποστηρικτές του σχεδίου της αυτού στην Ευρώπη. Πλέον αρχίζει να ξεδιπλώνεται το Plan B, το οποίο περιλαμβάνει την ελάφρυνση του χρέους όχι μέσω απευθείας διαγραφής μέρους του χρέους αλλά μέσω αντικατάστασης ομολόγων.

Σύμφωνα με τα νέα δεδομένα, η κυβέρνηση προτείνει την αντικατάσταση υφιστάμενων χρεογράφων που διακρατεί η Ευρώπη με νέα χρεόγραφα δύο τύπων.

α) Ομόλογο το οποίο θα συνδέεται με την ονομαστική οικονομική ανάπτυξη και θα προορίζεται για αντικατάσταση των ευρωπαϊκών δανείων διάσωσης.
Αυτό το είδος ομολόγου αποτελεί ουσιαστικά την προαναγγελθείσα θέση της κυβέρνησης περί σύνδεσης της αποπληρωμής χρέους με την ανάπτυξη (ρήτρα ανάπτυξης). Εάν αυτός ο τύπος ομολόγου υιοθετηθεί, μπορεί να αποτελέσει ένα χρήσιμο εργαλείο για τη νέα κυβέρνηση, καθώς θα είναι προς το συμφέρον των πιστωτών η προώθηση αναπτυξιακών πολιτικών στην ελληνική οικονομία.

β) Ο δεύτερος τύπος ομολόγου είναι το λεγόμενο διηνεκές ομόλογο (perpetual bond). Το perpetual bond είναι ένα ομόλογο το οποίο έχει μεν επιτόκιο αλλά δεν έχει ημερομηνία λήξης (maturity date). Αυτό πρακτικά σημαίνει ότι ο δανειολήπτης δεν δεσμεύεται να επιστρέψει το κεφάλαιο του χρέους και υποχρεούται να πληρώνει μόνο τους τόκους, δηλαδή μέσω του ομολόγου αυτού θα μετατραπούν χρέη σε ίδια κεφάλαια. Ουσιαστικά, με τον τρόπο αυτό, η κυβέρνηση προωθεί έναν τεχνικό τρόπο για να κουρέψει μέρος του χρέους δίχως όμως να περιλαμβάνεται η «κακή» λέξη κούρεμα ή διαγραφή.

Προβλέψεις σχετικά με το κατά πόσο το Plan B της κυβέρνησης θα γίνει αποδεκτό από τους εταίρους είναι ακόμη επισφαλές να γίνουν. Επίσης ερωτηματικό αποτελεί το κατά πόσον το εναλλακτικό πλάνο της κυβέρνησης επαρκεί για να «χωρέσει» τις προεκλογικές δεσμεύσεις του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ. Το μόνο σίγουρο είναι ότι το νέο σχέδιο καταπραΰνει σε μεγάλο βαθμό τους διεθνείς παράγοντες, οι οποίοι από την πρώτη στιγμή αντέδρασαν ακόμη και στο άκουσμα της λέξης κούρεμα ή διαγραφή. Όσο οι διαπραγματεύσεις είναι σε πλήρη εξέλιξη και συνεχώς μπαίνουν νέα δεδομένα στο τραπέζι, θα ήταν πρόωρο να μιλήσουμε για το εάν το Plan B αποτελεί υπαναχώρηση της κυβέρνησης ή έξυπνο διαπραγματευτικό ελιγμό. Άλλωστε, ο πολιτικός χρόνος είναι τόσο πυκνός, που δεν είναι απίθανο να δούμε μέσα στις επόμενες μέρες το ξεδίπλωμα και άλλων στρατηγικών οι οποίες μπορεί να συνθέτουν ένα Plan C ή ένα Plan D με πολύ διαφορετικά χαρακτηριστικά.

Δείτε επίσης

“Χορεύοντας με τους λύκους”, του Ηλία Παπαδόπουλου, οικονομολόγου, μέλους της Δ.Ε. του Κινήματος Δεν Πληρώνω-Ενιαίο Μέτωπο.

«ΧΟΡΕΥΟΝΤΑΣ ΜΕ ΤΟΥΣ ΛΥΚΟΥΣ» του Ηλία Παπαδόπουλου, οικονομολόγου, μέλους της Δ.Ε. του Κινήματος Δεν Πληρώνω-Ενιαίο …

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